What should the value of lambda be in the exponentially weighted moving average volatility model?

Forecasting volatility is fundamental to forecasting parametric models of value-at-risk. The exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) volatility model is the recommended model for forecasting volatility by the Riskmetrics group. For monthly data, the lambda parameter of the EWMA model is recommended to be set to 0.97. In this study, we empirically investigate if this is the optimal value of lambda in terms of forecasting volatility. Employing monthly realized volatility as the benchmark for testing the value of lambda, it is found that a value of lambda of 0.97 is far from optimal. The tests are robust to a variety of test statistics. It is further found that the optimal value of lambda is time varying and should be based upon recent historical data. The article offers a practical method to increase the reliability and accuracy of value-at-risk forecasts that can be easily implemented within an Excel spreadsheet.     

Evaluating Systemic Geopolitics – A Twenty-First Century View

This article explores the effects of borders on the making of trade union policies and on their capacity to act. It takes as an entry-point the reform of Luxembourg's system of family allowances and financial support for students in 2010, which redefined the group of beneficiaries and partly excluded cross-border workers from neighbouring countries. This led to heated debates in Luxembourg and in the Greater Region (comprising Luxembourg, Saarland, Rhineland-Palatinate, Lorraine and Wallonia) during which trade unions played an important part. The author explores the contradictory logics of both competition and cooperation within the Greater Region. These lead to a gap between integration as a discourse and what it means for local populations, in particular regarding labour market competition. The debates within trade unions on the issue of social entitlements for cross-border workers offer insights into the dynamics of this dichotomy and into the everyday fabric of cross-border social relations.     

Mistaking an Emerging Market for a Social Movement? A Comment on Arjaliès’ Social-Movement Perspective on Socially Responsible Investment in France

In a recent contribution to this journal, Arjaliès (J Bus Ethics 92:57–78, 2010) suggests that the emergence of socially responsible investment (SRI) in France can be best described as a social movement with a collective identity that aimed to challenge the dominant logic of the financial market. Such an account is at odds with a body of empirical studies that approaches SRI in the French context as a process of market creation led by loosely coordinated actors with contradictory and conflicting interests and values, who have mainly complied with—rather than opposed—the existing dominant financial logic of the asset-management field. In this comment, we build on this prior research to contest Arjaliès’ perspective on both theoretical and empirical grounds, with the aim of highlighting the shortcomings of conflating social movements and other forms of collective actions in understanding the building of new markets in organization theory and SRI studies. We contend that in mistaking for social movement forms of collective actions that underpin the emergence of markets, scholars of organization theory may confuse distinct mechanisms in their explanation of SRI emergence across countries, overlook the complex dynamics and interactions of markets and social movements, and, most importantly, fail to evaluate the real political significance of SRI as an empirical phenomenon. We propose that future research on SRI distinguishes carefully “social-movement research as a theoretical framework” from “social movement as an empirical phenomenon” in order to avoid such drawbacks while benefiting from recent advances in social-movement research.     

What the OECD-WTO TiVA Data Tell Us about Comparative Advantage and International Trade in General

ABSTRACT

This article tests the influence of distance on French international trade during the first globalization by using Germany as a mirror. Unlike Germany, the impact of distance on French exports to distant markets contradicts the literature in a context of fall in transaction costs. France did not take advantage of the globalization that was occurring at the end of the period insofar as it did not intensify its exports to emerging countries that were enjoying rapid economic growth. To understand the difficulties encountered by France in exporting, we discuss the role of commercial policy and of price competitiveness.     

Zooming in VS zooming out on value co-creation: Consequences for BtoB research

The concept of value co-creation is now taken for granted in the marketing community. It is the result of what we consider as a premature closure of this concept. The aim of this article is to prevent this premature closure by confronting what this discipline has produced thus far in order to highlight the breadth of situations that this concept presumes to encompass. To achieve this, we analyze a selection of articles published in special issues of marketing journals that were dedicated to value co-creation and/or service dominant logic. This sample enables us to point to the risks of being locked into a zoom-out approach to economic exchange: an arbitrary reduction of the vast heterogeneity of exchange phenomena and an inability to account for the complexity of these phenomena. Because value co-creation is a conception that is in conflict with the zoom-in approach to exchange phenomena, our intent is to conduct a healthy rebalancing of perspectives on economic exchange and thereby keep the controversy alive.     

Dynamic preferences for popular investment strategies in pension funds

In this paper, we characterize dynamic investment strategies that are consistent with the expected utility setting and more generally with the forward utility setting. Two popular dynamic strategies in the pension funds industry are used to illustrate our results: a constant proportion portfolio insurance (CPPI) strategy and a life-cycle strategy. For the CPPI strategy, we are able to infer preferences of the pension fund’s manager from her investment strategy, and to exhibit the specific expected utility maximization that makes this strategy optimal at any given time horizon. In the Black–Scholes market with deterministic parameters, we are able to show that traditional life-cycle funds are not optimal to any expected utility maximizers. We also prove that a CPPI strategy is optimal for a fund manager with HARA utility function, while an investor with a SAHARA utility function will choose a time-decreasing allocation to risky assets in the same spirit as the life-cycle funds strategy. Finally, we suggest how to modify these strategies if the financial market follows a more general diffusion process than in the Black–Scholes market.     

From Origination to Renegotiation: A Comparison of Portfolio and Securitized Commercial Real Estate Loans

We examine long-run house price convergence across the twenty Paris districts using a quarterly dataset that spans from 1991 to 2014. Our approach is based on two stages. In the first stage, we apply methods of unit root testing. Our econometric modelling exercise adopts a pair wise approach that is built on a probabilistic test for convergence based on all house price differentials across the Paris districts. We find that more than 50 % of the intra-city house price differentials that can be computed are stationary. In the second stage of our investigation, we analyse the drivers of convergence. The probability of stationarity is negatively affected by unemployment differentials across districts, demographics differentials and supply-side characteristics. Our findings further reveal that the half-life of a shock to long-run price equilibrium is affected positively by unemployment, distance and housing supply. Our analysis suggests that smaller distances between Parisian districts are associated with a faster speed of adjustment back towards long-run equilibrium.     

Risk bounds for factor models

Recent literature has investigated the risk aggregation of a portfolio \(X=(X_{i})_{1\leq i\leq n}\) under the sole assumption that the marginal distributions of the risks \(X_{i} \) are specified, but not their dependence structure. There exists a range of possible values for any risk measure of \(S=\sum_{i=1}^{n}X_{i}\), and the dependence uncertainty spread, as measured by the difference between the upper and the lower bound on these values, is typically very wide. Obtaining bounds that are more practically useful requires additional information on dependence.Here, we study a partially specified factor model in which each risk \(X_{i}\) has a known joint distribution with the common risk factor \(Z\), but we dispense with the conditional independence assumption that is typically made in fully specified factor models. We derive easy-to-compute bounds on risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (\(\mathrm{VaR}\)) and law-invariant convex risk measures (e.g. Tail Value-at-Risk (\(\mathrm{TVaR}\))) and demonstrate their asymptotic sharpness. We show that the dependence uncertainty spread is typically reduced substantially and that, contrary to the case in which only marginal information is used, it is not necessarily larger for \(\mathrm{VaR}\) than for \(\mathrm{TVaR}\).     

Scenarios and Actors' Strategies:: The Case of the Agri-Foodstuff Sector

The importance of the agricultural market in France prompted BASF to seek out a new way of strengthening relations with its partners in the agrifood sector. In 1996, against a backdrop of change (EU legislation) and upheaval (Mad Cow Disease), BASF offered operations managers or officers of distribution companies an opportunity to reflect upon the future in a workshop setting. This innovative three-stage exercise, guided by Professor Michel Godet (CNAM) and the Gerpa consulting team, met with enthusiasm, and was expanded beyond the original group and time frame. In fact, the distribution chain was opened up to include various actors, for example, consumer advocacy groups, so that we speak of the agri-food channel and sector. Original questions focused on farmers' expectations and distribution problems with specific horizon lines. Environmental and genetic issues soon came to the forefront. Besides workshops and meetings, the Delphi-Régnier Abacus technique was applied, as explained in this step-by-step review of the BASF project. Overall, futures thinking has become part of the BASF France way of doing business. Indeed, the BASF “Futures Studies Group,” expanded to include mass distribution representatives, intends to continue working on the very timely theme of food safety.